The Ron Brown is unfortunately not going to be able to divert as far as 23N 32W from the PNE trackline, which runs from Bermuda to 20N 38W to 20.5N 23W, then to Eq-23W and finishes in Barbados. Ship time will be tight, and although there is usually a spare day built into the schedule, all but one of the moorings would still be in the future as the ship is passing south of the SPURS area. In other words, the chief scientist (Claudia) won't yet know if that spare day is needed for mooring operations, should a problem develop there.
I've run a Nikolai-style simulation using the observed probability distribution functions of all drifters in the area, and released simulated drifters at 20.5N 23W and at 20.3N 28W. The attached figures show the results, with shading indicating log10(probability) and a star at the SPURS mooring site. In both cases the drifters are likely to pass south of the mooring at 25N 38W.
